I haven’t done a poll in a while.
Will Barack Obama be re-elected as President in 2012?
- Yes, Barack Obama will be re-elected in 2012. (66%, 131 Votes)
- No, Barack Obama will lose the 2012 election. (19%, 37 Votes)
- No opinion/Magic 8 ball says "ask again later." (9%, 18 Votes)
- Barack Obama will not run for President in 2012. (8%, 15 Votes)
Total Voters: 201
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Right now, Vegas odds-maker make Obama the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination (-700). Dems are favored to win the Presidency (-160). And Obama’s re-election (-125) is also favored.
In the Republican Party, there is an actual chance to make money:
Sarah Palin: +350
Mitt Romney: +400
Mike Huckabee: +500
Bobby Jindal: +600
The rest pay $1,000 plus.
Palin – I can’t see her getting the nomination, let alone winning the general election. She’s widely believed to have cost McCain the election, plus her approval ratings outside of the Tea Party fringe are abysmal. The Christian right loves her and the rest of the country is terrified.
Romney – smooth, suave, despised in his own state, and Mormon. The Christian right will never vote for him as long as he belongs to a “heretical” religion, even though he might do well in the general election.
Huckabee – might do well this time in the primaries, but the nomination? Doubtful once one gets out of the Bible Belt. Much, much conservative than he appears, and has some very nutty religious leanings.
Jindal – dull as dishwater, contradicted himself on the role of federal government, whines. Could make it as a VP nominee to show that Republicans really don’t hate minorities, but not strong enough to carry a ticket on his own.
The one they’re forgetting about is Tim Pawlenty. I could see him actually getting the nomination and making a credible run at Obama. Not sure if he’d win, but he’d be more likely to appeal to moderates and independents than any of the above.
“Not sure if he’d win, but he’d be more likely to appeal to moderates and independents than any of the above.”
The Republican Party has largely given moderates the finger, which is too bad. I am all for moderates from either the left or the right.
Well, let’s see:
Palin: might actually get the nomination, because crazy baseland just loves her, but she’d be toast in the general election. Her only chance would be the gambit the Republicans ran with Bush, ie., “sure he’s stupid, but he’ll surround himself with smart people.” The American people know how that turned out.
Romney: he’s smart and he looks like a winner, but he oozes phoniness like a musty smell. He’s changed positions on absolutely all of the social issues malarky that’s so important to the religious right. He was pro-choice and pro-gay when he was running as a liberal in Massachusetts. One the issues important to the Sarah fans he’s done more back flips than an Olympic gymnast. And he’s a Mormon.
Huckabee: the most human of the 2008 cadidates, but he believes in the ‘caring for the poor’ parts of the Bible. The money men won’t stand for that.
Jindal: has come off well in the Gulf spill, but he’s a brown person, and his parents weren’t citizens when he was born. Crazy baseland will use that as an excuse not to support him.
Personally, I think this may be the year of the unknown in the Republican Party.
Huckabee no longer has a chance he’s got that multiple “willie horton” issue still hanging over him.
Yeah, the potential crop of likely GOP candidates (not “dream candidates”, but folks whose actions to date have indicated they are making preliminary exploratory steps…) is extremely weak, to the point that based on those we know of today, it seems impossible that any of them would win over all of the GOP base elements, let alone be considered to have enough of appeal for the general.
Don’t forget that long, washed-up has-been Newt Gingrich seems to be clearly in the mix…yet again.
Also, recently Mississippi Gov, Haley Barbour has been taking a lot of steps that appear to indicate that he’ll enter the race, which is most amusing. I think he’s completely blind to the fact that his extreme, over-the-top “deep southern” ways don’t play well at all in the rest of the country. He’d stand a better chance winning the role of Boss Hog in the next low-budget Dukes of Hazzard remake than running for President.
So yeah, barring unforseen viable candidates entering the picture, Obama doesn’t have any real competition in 2012 at this point.
Huck – the Dems will pay him back for Willie Horton, with compound interest. Plus, he’s an affable, bible thumping idiot.
Palin – she already cost McSame the election. Outside of the bible thumpers, she scares the daylights out of people. She already said on Faux Noise that our laws should be based on the bible. Alec Baldwin calls her Bible Spice.
I know it’s New Yawk, but:
http://gawker.com/5441576/why-do-the-jews-hate-sarah-palin-so-much
Romney – he changes positions with his shirt. He comes across as a soap actor. Plus the Dems found a video of his support for universal health care, including mandating insurance for everyone. Jews would vote for him because he loves Israel, and overlook their baptizing dead Jews, their proselytizing Jews, and their opposition to stem cell research. Also, his father was born in Mexico to a polygamist family. If that’s not bad enough, George Romney was once CEO of American Motors. (who?)
Actually, that might not be too bad. One mother could help with your homework, while your other mother made dinner.
True story: two Mormon missionaries told me “the old covenant ended forever in AD 70. Judaism does not exist anymore.”
Jindal was born 7 months after his parents came here, and you know what’s in the Constitution. Besides, the wackos say life begins at conception, so he was born an Indian citizen. If Romney gets the nomination, he’ll be VP even though he comes across as Howdy Doody.
Haley Barbour is a Southern-fried phony. Not a chance in the world.
Newt Gingrich – hated by everyone except fans of potboiler historical novels. Doesn’t thump his Bible enough, and still renowned for serial adultery and really tasteless ways of dumping wives for mistresses. Can’t see it happening.
Romney, BTW, is such a phony that the Concord Monitor, the leading paper in New Hampshire, told its readers to vote for any Republican BUT Mitt in 2008. It was their first negative endorsement, and Romney supposedly nearly had a stroke when he found out. He is so despised in Massachusetts that a random passerby on the Common screamed “YOU ARE A HORRIBLE HUMAN BEING!!!!” at him as he walked down the Statehouse steps in 2006. They didn’t even do that to Jane Swift or Mike Dukakis.
Rumor has it Jeb Bush is looking into changing his name.
It’s a coin toss: Charlie McCarthy, or Mortimer Snerd.
I forgot about that. The Wayne Dumond thing alone was a travesty. Who would a thought a career criminal and serial rapist might kill two women if he got out of jail?
But he said in prison, he became a Christian. (bada-bing)
Don’t they all. It’s the easiest scam in the world, and most people in prison are con artists.
Yeah, his Deep Southern act will do really well in the northeast, or the west coast. I can see him campaigning in New York. “Susan, what is that man talking about? Is the Grand Old Opry coming to Broadway for a run?”
“Governor, we’re going to Brooklyn today.”
“Why are all these people all wearing black, and long coats? Are they going to a funeral?”
True story: I once worked in a Leesburg, VA optical store. I said I needed a day off for Rosh Hashana. My co-worker literally said, “what’s Rosh Hashana?”
I told him we dance naked around a fire.
Did you ever read the history of Jewish people in the Wild West? The book is titled “Frontier Accountants.”
Jindal has a lot of problems. He has the on-air personality of a wet rag, he tends to speak before he thinks (volcano monitoring, anyone?), and he’s Roman Catholic, which bothers some religious conservatives,. As you say, his parents were not born here and weren’t citizens when he was born, and that absolutely resonates with a certain constituency (see: recent SC election & the terrible “raghead” comment made against the Republican candidate for governor by a fellow Republican). Worst of all (to me, anyway) is that he’s a creationist.
I’m looking for Mitch Daniels (governor of Indiana), Jim DeMint (senator from South Carolina), Haley Barbour (Governor of Mississippi), Tim Pawlenty (Governor of Minnesota), and Mike Pence (Congressman from Indiana) to run.
There is a so-so chance that Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry (Governor of Texas), and Jeb Bush will strongly consider running. Newt can raise money, but can’t win. Jeb Bush is tainted by his family at this point, and who knows about Rick Perry?
Zixi of Ix: “Worst of all (to me, anyway) is that he’s a creationist.”
Me too.
Plus, he helped in an exorcism. I read the whole story. The woman was clearly having a breakdown, and instead of getting her to a shrink, they stood around with 16th century claptrap, and Jindal claimed he smelled sulfur. Puhleeze.
Rick Perry: he threatened to secede. Hey Texas: please secede, and take your textbooks and football with you.
Palin: http://newyorkleftist.blogspot.com/2009/11/dont-cry-for-me-alaska.html
I say it’s going to be Romney/Jindal – and they’ll lose. Romney will go on to star in soaps, and Jindal will reprise Howdy Doody at an amusement park.
Yea. I can just see Rick Perry running after being crazy enough to suggest the state of Texas should and could succeed from the union.
I think you meant either putative, or probative.
Interesting article from USA Today…
“WASHINGTON — Most Americans approve of President Obama’s decision to oust Gen. Stanley McChrystal as commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and they support the White House timetable to begin withdrawing from the nation’s longest war next year. In all, 58% back the plan to start pulling out U.S. troops in July 2011 and 38% oppose it.
Fifty percent of those polled say Obama is doing a good or very good job in handling Afghanistan; 44% rate his performance as poor or very poor. That’s a slightly brighter appraisal than his overall approval rating of 46% in the daily Gallup Poll.”
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-06-27-poll-usat-gallup_N.htm
“A total of 13 percent of Americans said that Obama was born in Kenya, Indonesia or “someplace else outside the U.S.,” according to a new 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair poll released Monday.
Another 11 percent of Americans said they were unsure of the country in which Obama was born.
Concerns over the location of Obama’s birth have driven the so-called “birther” movement, a movement that asserts Obama may be constitutionally ineligible as president if he were not born a U.S. citizen.
Obama released his birth certificate some time ago, which shows that he was born in Honolulu, Hawaii, on August 4, 1961. Birthers complain that Obama should release his “long-form” birth certificate, and some Republican lawmakers, who deny that they’re birthers, have introduced legislation to require birth certificates from presidential candidates.
39 percent of those surveyed accurately named Hawaii as the birthplace of Obama, and 20 percent were unsure in which state the president was born. One percent said Kansas, where Obama spent some time in his youth, while three percent said he was born somewhere else in the United States.”
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/105801-13-percent-say-obama-not-born-in-the-us
So only about 13% of the people think that the President may have been born outside of the US. That is a much smaller number than before. It seems that the more the birthers are discredited, the more Americans realize that the birthers are wrong. And that is what drives them crazy. Which is why we see the Post and Fail and WND coming up with these crazy articles and letters regarding overthrowing the democratically elected President and his Cabinet. The more the GOP panders to the birthers, the more negative they will be viewed when it comes to election time….
Black Lion: The more the GOP panders to the birthers, the more negative they will be viewed when it comes to election time….
No white man was ever asked to show his birth certificate.
In a nutshell, you’ve illustrated one of the GOP’s most serious problems: People like Rick Perry (Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, etc) are so far out in right field that they may be able to get the nomination, but are almost certainly unelectable in the general election.
In my opinion, this is the logical result of the GOP’s reliance on media personalities like Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck to keep the base engaged.
In doing so, they’ve failed to take into account the fact that Limbaugh, Beck, O’Reilly, etc, all compete against each other for ratings, and are always having to come up with more and more extreme rhetoric to keep their listeners.
As long as the GOP takes the easy way out and relies on unelected personalities instead of elected representatives with tested ideas, I see this (more and more radicalized candidates with not a chance of winning nationally) as the outcome.
Good points & well said.
I totally agree. As long as they allow the RW media personalities to drive the agenda and brainwash their base to keep them forever riled up in fear/anger with constant use of “coded” dog-whistle language and portraying anyone who disagrees with them or tries to work with the other side as traitors, they are doomed as a party and painted into a corner with no way out, except a constant downward spiral into ever increasing madness and internal division.
When they then try to field candidates that pander to this frothing base, they are trapped into saying or supporting the same things, which might play well for that audience, but is viewed very negatively outside of that bubble.
Plus, their dogmatic purity tests coming from different portions of their base and different loud-mouth media voices driving them ensure that they continue to sub-divide further & further into different “splinter” tribal factions. (Just look at the “Tea Party” folks as one example).
Therefore, it becomes even more difficult for any of their own candidates to be acceptable to all of their base tribal elements, let alone viable in the general.
Every dying movement gets louder and more dangerous and appears bigger than it is as it starts its downward spiral, feeding false hope and sending the wrong message to continue its quest for purity.
Unless the GOP holds an intervention or a serious housecleaning of its extremist elements & views (like when the Birchers were kicked out of the party back in the 60’s), I don’t see a good long term path for them to recover.
Right now, they are benefiting from taking the easy path of being an opposition party during a time of great economic crisis and when there is a high general sense of distrust and dissatisfaction for government due to many of the larger long-term problems of our system having been endlessly kicked down the road for decades.
Which is quite ironic, since they themselves are responsible for many of the failed policies that have led to all of these problems in the first place…
But the very same anger wave they are riding will be their downfall – as it is only giving them false bravado & hope and causing them not to learn any lessons from their mistakes and merely masks the sever weakness of their own internal problems. Without solutions and something other than divisive fear/hate to run on, they will eventually destroy themselves from within and the most ironic thing is that they will probably not even see it coming.