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My Other Blogs
I haven’t spotted a recent open topic thread, so I’m dropping this here. A very interesting BBC documentary about engaging a group of British Truthers in the evidence that debunks 9/11 conspiracy theories.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVnQPGE36P4&feature=player_embedded#!
Happy Mother’s Day!
My special deputy research assistant is a mother and I have published a breaking report with her for your review!
“My special deputy research assistant and I demand to see a certified copy of Mitt Romney’s original birth certificate.”
http://www.wasobamaborninkenya.com/blog/barrack-obama-eligibility/my-special-deputy-research-assistant-and-i-demand-to-see-a-certified-copy-of-mitt-romneys-original-birth-certificate/
Please exercise your free speech in the comments section below. There are no stipulations of political correctness on this blog. Speak your mind, give us your thoughts, both objective and subjective. Share your ideas, hunches, inklings or your expertise. Please provide recommendation and corrections if you spot errors in fact within the blog report. Lastly, remember that posting a comment is much like casting a vote, so please do so and thank you!
I was going to sign up with birthermingle.com, then I found out they have only 1 female member, Orly! I got sick!
Yawn.. So desperate for attention… Poor sod.
Moreover, Smith poses his “research assistant” in a tight-fitting, skimpy outfit, and then photographs her in a demeaning, sexualized manner.
Hey, I’ve lost track of the smears on President Obama. It’s tough to keep track. Is he a Muslim, or did he attend services under a racist Christian pastor named Jeremiah Wright?
http://www.wnd.com/2012/05/more-blacks-arrested-in-mob-attack-on-whites/?cat_orig=us
Just a look through the comments on articles like this, viletweets.com, etc etc etc — and you can see that an increasingly large and growing portion of the country think like this. This country is far more than divided – it’s terminally ill. What kind of future does this place have with these negative hate driven undercurrents gaining such momentum ?
You know, I got arrested for my own bit of crazy anger driven rant — I was drunk but thinking just enough to (wrongly) assume that if they ever made a legal issue out of my words, that the words of the anti-government militant right would also make news — especially considering how many death threats toward the president and terroristic type threats toward any non conservative occur WEEKLY on the very blog that I made my Arpaio threats on … But no… No word is spoken in the many national news outlets that covered my story. Rush Limbaugh continued his routine pathological lying , doing a segment saying that no one is covering my story (even though ABC, Nytimes, AP, and many other outlets covered it.) It was even suggested that if somone on the right made a threat it would be national news for weeks. (Funny thing, none of the MANY routine Obama threats get any coverage) …
You know, I did lie in my threatening rant .. I don’t believe in Satan … No one told me to provoke the fascists. I tried to do so on my own volition. Like many of my crazy right wing counterparts, I believe civil war is inevitable in this country. I also believe the evolution of intelligent life on earth will require a bit of self cleansing, otherwise the cancer of the ignorant might end up being it’s demise. In other words, This country and much of the world is STUCK ON STUPID. If you are a pacifist with an IQ above 120, I highly suggest rethinking your position of “peace and love is all you need” . There are many backwards and very fascist forces in this country who would love to see you fail at the game of “survival of the fittest” ..
I probably won’t be around to see or participate in what’s coming — Dealing with some serious health problems which are quickly taking their toll. It’s probably a good thing, I hope very few people with the type of anger that I carry survive this turbulent next chapter of human history. A world with fewer angry and hate driven people can only be a good thing. (even if the hate feels justified)
Good luck.
He’s now a Rastafarian, or is it Pastafarian?
It has gone very quiet over there. I wonder if Orly is spending too much time on the Senate campaign to the detriment of the real fun. I never thought that I would miss her so much and I hope that she gets back to the real work of filing court actions. When are we likely to get the first of the RICO cases in front of a judge? That should provide some entertainment for a while. Orly, please come back.
N.C. Republican hopeful Scott Keadle regrets comments on Obama’s birthplace.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/05/14/148774/nc-republican-hopeful-scott-keadle.html
Darren Huff sentenced to 4 years (out of max of 5 years)
Poor Darren, I still believe that he was misled by the rhetoric of others to take some actions which were quite foolish.
PS: Walt at the P&E provides Darren with some ‘help’…. Walt should be more concerned about his own follies though.
Makes me sad to see Huff get four years. Not that I’m a fan of his, but it just seems out of proportion to his crime. Did he have some kind of incompetent birther lawyer?
I agree.
Though when I think about it- that sentence may stop another person from starting on a path that leads to shooting a Gifford or some other public official.
Maybe the sentence is out of proportion but the deterent makes it worthwhile
Help as in lots of fresh batteries for his incarceration?
Darren is a fool with a big mouth and he was offered opportunities to settle and opportunities to reconsider his follies but he somehow decide that he should visit Monroe County, with weapons in his trunk, and having bragged about taking over…
Did he not resist arrest and threaten police with a gun, or was that someone else? Is there minimum sentence for crimes committed with a gun in his state?
You must be thinking of someone else. Huff faced federal, not state charges.
While the site was down, I indulged in a bit of nostalgia.
No prizes for guessing the theme:
Warning… NSFW… strong language ahead!
Why complain about politicians? Garbage In; Garbage Out
St. Ronald (~10 minutes)
Description remind you of anyone?
Patriotism ain’t all its cracked up to be
“Minorities now surpass whites in US births, census shows”
Here’s an article where some of the birther bigots that troll here can vent their rage. Check out the blatant racism in the comments section.
Link: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/05/17/minorities-now-surpass-whites-in-us-births-census-shows/
Well, whatever miniscule chance there ever was to rebut the “Kenyan Birth” Birthers just got infinitely minisculer. Look for a spate of new Birther law suits.
Squeeky Fromm
Girl Reporter
The Magic M and Paper write from Germany. I was raised surrounded by Survivors, including Slavic gentiles. As I wrote before, my best friend in college was Ukrainian Catholic. His mother survived Auschwitz; his father survived the Gestapo.
This is the vitriol that was orchestrated by Goebbels, and preceded Yitzhak Rabin. We had a visitor here, who went on two rants, of the most base kind.
Santorum and
SeamusRomney would not stand up to bigots in the audience.This is why I am so concerned.
I was pleased to read that Dean Haskins has announced that he wants “to offer, for a limited time, the ability for those who paid a registration fee, who would like a refund of those fees, to receive one. Registration fee refunds will be available by request to those who send an email to dean@birthersummit.orgThis e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it no later than June 11, 2012.”
http://www.birthersummit.org/news/92-the-birther-summit-offers-refunds.html
Congratulations, Dean! You made an ethical decision.
OK, that’s it. I am officially no longer ‘from Arizona’.
I am now ‘from the American Southwest’.
Veto of McClintock seniors bill is called ‘disheartening’
“However, Hodge and his sponsor, Democratic Sen. David Schapira, are not convinced by Brewer’s reasoning behind the veto.
“The only reason she vetoed this bill is because it was sponsored by a Democratic legislator and the idea originated with a student who identifies himself as a Democrat,” said Sen. Schapira in a press release.”
Schapira is Jewish.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but I don’t give a ratzazz about that.
I do care about this:
The Governer’s job is to faithfully execute the laws enacted by the legislature. What the fornication does she think her job is?
The proposed addition is to ARS Section15-203, the “Powers and Duties” of the State Board of Education. The list of duties numbers over 40 items. Item number 31 has to do with adopting guidelines to encourage students in years 9, 10, and 11 to engage in community work of at least 20 hours, and includes stuff like categorizing what area of community service qualify, how its monitored, indemnifying the school from problems as a result, etc, etc. The bill would add seventh subparagraph to that item, the text of which is:.
So they want the Governor to have a photo-op and hand out a certificate when a student really contributes a significant amount of time to community service. The Governor doesn’t even have to do that much really, just authorize his/her electronic signature to be put on the certificate. Seems pretty damn trivial to me, but not trivial at all to a student that has worked his butt off and given so much to the community.
What is wrong with this woman?
Her veto message says she already does this for kids that do 100 hours, and she doesn’t need the Legislature to tell her what to do, especially when she is already doing it.
From what I see, all this bill does is formalize that procedure, and instructs the Board of Education to do all the hard work, relieving the Governor of that task which is apparently too much for her. It also means that the next Governor will continue the practice, and not let it slip into the overlooked basket.
This veto is the sorriest, pissiest, most mean spirited excuse of a policy relating to the community’s treatment of its kids since the Obama message was attacked as an attempt at Islamo/Marxist indoctrination.
I just don’t get it. When a factory owner tell his workers to work harder or they won’t get a pay rise, that is good capitalist rhetoric and smart advice for advancement. When the President tell school kids to work hard to achieve their dreams it is Islamic fundamentalism propaganda.
When a factory owner rewards his employees for productivity gains, that is again the factory owner exercising his capitalist right to encourage good behavior. When the State Board of Education nominates students for an award from the Governor for an extremely meritorious contribution to the community, that is the Legislature stepping on the Governor’s toes, and not worthy of consideration, and nothing to do with the student.
Misha – what is with your pal Cory Booker? Turned pro vulture capitalist, or what?
I’m not sure if this was mentioned before, but I saw this yesterday in a trailer:
Did you know Sasha Baron Cohen (Ali G, Borat, Brüno) has a spoof interview with Larry King (in his role as Admiral General Hafez Aladeen in “The Dictator”) where he says about Obama: “it was my father […] who helped smuggle him from Kenya as a child”?
The segment continues:
King: “Are you saying he was not born in the United States?
Admiral General Hafez Aladeen: “Of course not!”
=> http://www.starsentertainment.com/item/larry-king-interviews-the-dictator.html
And $10 say at least a triple-digit amount of birthers will refer to this as “additional evidence”. 😉
The Breibart thing comes out and Mark Whittington writes this:
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-born-kenya-booklet-raises-questions-225600739.html
The second paragraph states that the President was born in Hawaii. Not many commenters seem to notice.
The Arizona SoS sends the request to Hawaii, but states that he thinks the President was born in Hawaii.
Sheriff Ar— never-mind. All of it leads me to one overarching question:
Who will be to blame when and if a lone wolf strikes?
I am speechless. My reaction was WTF, too. Of course I’m disappointed.
They’ll all be disingenuous and crying ‘free speech.’ They all know they are playing with fire.
I wrote many times, this is exactly what preceded Yitzhak Rabin – and Orly Taitz knows it.
Does anyone know if Mario filed his appeal brief last Friday?
Dr. Conspiracy will be grading papers tomorrow:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/05/bayes_theorem_and_mr_obamas_literary_agency.html
I was a teaching assistant in grad school and I did teach math and grade papers. Math is pretty cut and dried, but when it comes to “word problems” there are pitfalls in applying the theory to the problem. Let’s see how the American Thinker article scores.
> Let’s see how the American Thinker article scores.
Its fault lies, as usual, in the premises:
“How likely is it that a random error like the one asserted by Mr. Obama’s campaign and Ms. Goderich explains the mistake of stating that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya if in fact he was born in the United States? A one percent chance, for a probability of .01 […] seems a rather reasonable, even kind, estimate. ”
The point here is that the article assumes that “Obama born in Kenya” was a *random* error. However, no-one claims that and it is quite strange to assume it was one.
It wasn’t like “the writer accidentally typed a wrong country, and of all possible choices, his fingers selected Kenya”.
It was more likely, as was explained here and elsewhere, that whoever wrote it mixed up Obama with his father doing the fact-checking.
The second mistake the author makes is that he assumes the booklet has any probative value as actual evidence – which it hasn’t, and not just if we’re thinking “court standard”, but also common sense standard.
The third mistake the author makes is that he is only showing how a single premise (“Obama born in Hawaii because [A]”) modified with a single “fact” (loosely speaking, see above) to the contrary can result in a Bayesian probability of 50:50. But that’s just a truism – two contradicting answers to the same question without much further assessment as to their respective probabilities (and supported by an obviously wrong probability for one answer, see first mistake above) always yield a 50:50 situation.
A proper Bayesian analysis would probably include all sources for “Kenyan birth” plus all sources for “Hawaiian birth” – and in that case, the “Kenyan birth” sources would have to have an extremely (otherworldly) high probability to them to overcome the sheer number of “Hawaiian birth” source, no matter what probability evaluation function is used.
So I would grade the American Thinker article an E to E-.
“Contributions to [Cory Booker’s] 2002 campaign from venture capitalists, investors, and big Wall Street bankers brought him more than $115,000 for his 2002 campaign. Among those contributing to his campaign were John Connaughton ($2,000), Steve Pagliuca ($2,200), Jonathan Lavine ($1,000) — all of Bain Capital. While the forms are not totally clear, it appears the campaign raised less than $800,000 total, making this a significant percentage.”
http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/05/21/488002/bain-financial-industy-gave-over-565000-to-newark-mayor-cory-booker-for-2002-campaign/
There were 4.2 million births in the US in 1961. From INS reports, there was 1 birth to a US citizen in the entire region of Africa, including Kenya and a number of other countries. Thus, the odds that 1 birth was to Ms Dunham/Obama is <1:4.2 million. Given that the reported birth was almost certainly to a US citizen residing in Africa, rather than someone who travelled there to give birth, the realistic estimate would be much longer odds than that, say close to 1:100 million.
That’s what I’v always liked about your posts, Magic: so generous!
One of the great benefits of this birther silliness is that it gives us something about which we can be certain to a rare degree. In life there are few things about which we can be so certain. But of course, the very foundation of our relationship with reality is such that we can never really say 100% about anything. But we can get close enough for practical purposes about many things, and on this topic the value of prior probability that President Obama was NOT born in Kenya is something like 99.9 (repeating).
So it is hilarious to see this author (an associate professor of criminology, no less!) try to use that as a “reasonable” point of departure, to suggest that the basic uncertainty of life is a wide open door for reasonable adjustment of that prior value.
And to answer the question posed, yes there is evidence that would change my mind. It doesn’t seem to exist, mind you, and this publicity bio is not even close to a competent much less reasonable standard for such mind-changing evidence. But yes, i could change my mind.
Though I suppose anyone can find a niche somewhere, I’d be more worried about my career after publishing this dreck, than about the uncertainty of life.
From the American Thinker article:
What then shall we say about the prior probability p(A) that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya? There are many who take themselves to be certain that he was born in Hawaii. It is reasonable to ask such persons what, if anything, in life is truly certain. It is also reasonable to point out that such persons are also saying that there is no evidence that could possibly come to light that would prompt them to change their minds. Is that a reasonable position to hold?
Probably not, so all else equal, it is rational to exclude such persons from the discussion (and they probably have not read this far anyway). What really is it issue for reasonable people here is just how unlikely it is that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya given all the evidence before the Breitbart disclosure. If if one wants to be as reserved as possible on this issue (and that may well be the best approach on this question) one would form the prior by considering only the evidence that favors Mr. Obama, which entails disregarding the Arpaio material.
Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/05/bayes_theorem_and_mr_obamas_literary_agency.html#ixzz1vbsk5WDL
Also, I just have to love one of the comments the author added to the article as an addendum.
The answer to his question is simple enough. Because they aren’t actually debates. If anything, “I’m rubber, you’re glue” is the endless loop of childhood debate tactics. Computer programers know the only answer is an escape function. If the “I am rubber, you are glue” counter is greater than or equal to three, than exit debate, go to “have a cup of tea” subroutine.
**********
From the addendum of the article:
“Persons who disagree with us (and again, this includes many conservatives with the Breitbart people and National Review people serving as a case-in-point) say things like “he has already released his birth certificate; what else do you want him to do?”
Debates like that seem to be never-ending, don’t they?”
If Obama had been born in Africa, he wouldn’t have been a US citizen, so I don’t see this applying.
I don’t necessarily agree with your conclusion (given the issues surrounding his parent’s marriage), but that isn’t the question I am addressing.
The question is: What percentage of births to US citizen mothers took place outside the US in 1961? We know that 4.2 million births were recorded inside the US in 1961 and 251 people got citizenship due to birth to a US parent(s) abroad. Some of those would be the children of US fathers and foreign mothers, but let’s assume all 251 mothers were American. That gives a frequency of 251/4.2 million or 1:16,733 that a US citizen who gave birth in 1961 did so outside the US. And,80% of those were in Europe, Asia (mostly Japan and the Philippines) and in Canada and Mexico. So, an American woman going to Kenya and giving birth, whether or not the child was eligible to be a US citizen or not, would be orders of magnitude less likely than that American woman giving birth in the USA.
If we start with that number (even being conservative and saying it’s 1:100,000 rather than 1:1,000,000) and apply Bayes theorem, the odds of Obama being born in Kenya are infinitessimal.
Isn’t this the bulwark of any conspiracy theory? The conspiracy theorists suggest insanely unreasonable things, and the reasonable among us aren’t allowed to dig in our heels. Because that’d be unreasonable of us.
Mara Zebest is using her considerable [lack of] graphics and imaging skills to conclude that the Situation Room photos of Barack Obama the day Bin Laden was killed are not what they appear to be.
http://mediamatters.org/blog/201205230004
Oh my. Always save Zebest for last.
“Ah-ha! Obama caught in the act of wearing a confusing pants-like jacket! Impeach?”
LMAO
It strains credulity to believe some of these lunatics are serious.
Thanks for highlighting round two in her new series. I saw her first installment, based on the more famous image. And I thought that was silly enough. Never underestimate the birthers. They’ll undercut you every time.
As Media Matters noted, NOFORN means that the document is not to be distributed to foreign nationals, even foreign nationals who otherwise have the appropriate security clearance.
When I was in the Navy back the ice age, we had many Filipinos in Subic Bay who were couriers with security clearances (rarely higher than Confidential). However, they were not allowed to see or handle documents which were stamped ‘NOFORN.”
Similarly, there were occasional documents which could be seen only by commissioned officers (Officers’ Eyes Only).
Elsewhere in birferdom, it appears that Noonan, et al. v. Bowen is about to crash and burn in California.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/94690004/CA-2012-05-25-NOONAN-Tentative-Ruling
Republican candidate in Colorado warns against the “bad politics” of birtherism:
“Mike Coffman (R-CO) took to conservative radio on Thursday to explain why he walked back his statement that the president is “not an American,” regardless of whether debunked conspiracy theories about his origins are correct. Above all, he had a warning for birthers: You’re practicing bad politics.
“‘If I had to do it over again I think I would have said, ‘Let’s move from this birther question, the president was born in the United States, period,’ Coffman said in an interview with local station K-HOW. ‘Let’s just move on and let’s focus on the issues that are going to win this election. And secondly, let’s not ascribe this to those who oppose us that they’re any less Americans than we are.’”
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/05/rep-mike-coffman-r-co-finally-explains-his-birther-rant.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
Sounds like the Romney camp is starting to crack the whip.
No, Seamus got off the roof, and read Romney the riot act.
“As Mankind becomes more liberal, they will be more apt to allow that all those who conduct themselves as worthy members of the community are equally entitled to the protections of civil government. I hope ever to see America among the foremost nations of justice and liberality.”
— George Washington
Gail Collins’ 50th time: “Maybe the dog is strapped to a fallen sycamore.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/26/opinion/collins-deciphering-mitt-speak-on-schools.html
Anybody have a clue what this Obama Conspiracy Theories contact form comment means?
It means he thought he was writing to WND.
It must be a comment about Judge Bronwyn Miller presiding over the Adam Kaufman Trial.
Eleventh Judicial Circuit Court Judge Bronwyn Miller:
http://www.aventurausa.com/abj/bronwynmiller-abj.shtml
More: http://miami.cbslocal.com/tag/judge-bronwyn-miller/
And here is a humorous editorial cartoon from the Houston Chronicle, that mashes a recent Time magazine cover with birtherism.
http://blog.chron.com/nickanderson/2012/05/raising-arizona/
Stunning accuracy.