Vogt
I don’t usually engage in the disclosure of personal information, but I did look at Douglas Vogt’s lawsuit in Washington State, and located his address on a Google map. I’m publishing here a photo of his house from that map:
It’s a modest dwelling to be sure. All kidding aside, Vogt probably lives somewhere around there. We know that in the early days of Arpaio’s Cold Case Posse, Doug Vogt was a major source of evidence for them. Brian Reilly met Vogt before he became an official member of the Posse.
Montgomery
“Montgomery” refers to Dennis Montgomery, someone identified by the Phoenix New Times as a confidential informant for Sheriff Joe Arpaio, and identified as a purveyor of faked information by the Wikipedia. Montgomery reportedly lives in Yarrow Point, Washington.
Hmmm
Now how big a coincidence is it that the UPS store shown above, and listed as Douglas Vogt’s address, is a scant 6.5 miles by road from the center of the town where Dennis Montgomery lives?
It sort of makes you go, hmmm. It doesn’t prove anything, but it’s a hummer.
HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
…………………………………………………………………………………
Vogt introduces Montgomery to the Posse as a computer expert capable of rebutting the Obot claims that the layered birth certificate resulted from the employment of the infamous Workstation copier. Once the introduction is made Montgomery convinces Zullow that he has additional skills that are unique as evidence by his prior employment by the Cia, et. al. He expertly expands his mandate by researching his marks and landing on the 2 individuals Arpaio hates more than Obama: Judge Snow and Eric Holder. Then it’s simply a matter of generating exotic evidence: charts, emails, mysterious recordings, top secret government documents.
He worked the same scam against a candidate for governor in Nevada. And it took years to untangle even though said candidate won his race and retained computer experts to exonerate himself.
Zullow famously said that the Obots trapped themselves by introducing the issue of the Workstation copier. That this issue caused his investigation to go in a whole new direction and reduced the birth certificate to secondary status. I submit that this is true if one accepts that the copier led to Montgomery and all his wonderous claims of what he and his magic software could accomplish.
One can get hung up on Montgmery’s colorful past and apparent lack of credibility. But you don’t literally walk into the Bush White House unless you got brass balls. And you don’t threaten a guy who’s about to be governor unless you’re a big swinging dick.
And after all the fraud and years of litigation he’s still very much a free man. And the feds refuse to touch him.
Interesting question. According to Wikipedia, the population density in the vicinity of Yarrow Point, WA is 2781/sq mi. Thus a rough estimate of the number of people who live within 6.5 miles is 370,000. The population of the US is about 300 million, so the probability that a randomly selected American lives within 6.5 miles of the center of Yarrow Point is about 1 in 810.
That sounds small. But let’s ask a different question: your Birther A-Z list has, it says, 349 people on it. What are the odds that you can find any pair living in close enough proximity that it would make you say, hmm, the odds of that are only 1 in 810? This is a variant of the Birthday Problem. The answer is, it is virtually certain that you would find a pair living this close, in fact, there are probably many such pairs.
Thanks DSM–I enjoyed reading your take on this matter.
And there’s the “NSA document”. Which seems unlikely to have been turned up by Zullo the Clown’s mad detectivization skilz.
But could, quite credibly, be the product of a con artist with a potential mark desperate to “refute the irrefutable”.
Hmmmmmmm…
In the immortal words of Johnny 5: “Need more input!”.
You say “refuse”. Why would that be and how do you know?
CarlOrcas:
Pull up the the New York Times article referenced in the Wikipedia entry on Dennis Montgomery and all shall be revealed.
The far right has a knack for making up evidence when none exists, I put forth the gazillion different birth certificates “found” for Barack Obama as evidence.
Nice analogy to the birthday problem. While it is nigh impossible to get an exact number for the probability that two birthers would live in a given proximity to each other, I’m sure it would be surprisingly high (especially since most people live close to a lot of other people).
I had read it and it strikes me the story….tawdry as it is…..is just a little more complicated than the government refusing to “touch” him.
The bottom line is he’s a con man and they have a fascinating facility for skirting the law for years and years and years.
Yeah, if you dig a little deeper you’ll find a house address associated with Dougie that’s within a couple of miles of his UPS Store.
Yeah, if you dig a little deeper you’ll find a house address associated with Dougie that’s within a couple of miles of his UPS Store.
Dave:
I appreciate your statistical approach to birther propiquity. I have no expertise in this area but to an uneducated layman it appears spot on.
But if I may approach the problem from a different direction. Dennis Montgomery is no ordinary presidential eligibility skeptic. He is potentially the Moby Dick of birthers owing to his absolutely unique skills. There are few amongst us that have successfully convinced the government to turn a Europe bound airliner around in midflight based on info derived from a black box, the operation of which no one understands save the inventor. This is a guy who literally spooked the spooks.
Now what are the odds that a run of the mill birther such as Vogt would live in proximity to one of the few American citizens with a demonstrated ability to successfully scam over a period of years billionaires, vice presidential candidates, CIA analysts, prominent junk bond traders, and sundry other one percenters.
I think the odds become considerably longer under this scenario. But sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
CarlOrcas
I appreciate your view point and I definitely agree that the failure of state or federal government to prosecute Montgomery is “complicated”. And that is one of the reasons his situation is so fascinating.
I’ve practiced criminal defense for 35 years and I’ve personally never seen anyone navigate through the Justice system in the manner of Montgomery. The feds are monsters. They have no mercy, sense of proportion, or human empathy. This is a guy who seemingly bilked the government of millions. He embarrassed top government officials. When he was done with that he decided to take on a popular and powerful candidate for the Nevada governorship. And after all his adventures he walked away still a free man. This is no ordinary conman.
DSM
“Vogt introduces Montgomery to the Posse as a computer expert capable of rebutting the Obot claims that the layered birth certificate resulted from the employment of the infamous Workstation copier. Once the introduction is made Montgomery convinces Zullow that he has additional skills that are unique as evidence by his prior employment by the Cia, et. al. He expertly expands his mandate by researching his marks and landing on the 2 individuals Arpaio hates more than Obama: Judge Snow and Eric Holder. Then it’s simply a matter of generating exotic evidence: charts, emails, mysterious recordings, top secret government documents.”
Vogt is in the right kind of business to meet Montgomery. You offer a compelling scenario, DSM.
I understand your point about Montgomery being very convincing, but just to be clear: Scamming birthers is not a particularly difficult feat. These are not at all sophisticated people. Their approach to birtherism is to assume that they are correct about everything and then head out to find “experts” who will agree with them. Higher birthers like Zullo and Taitz scam the rank and file birthers. Montgomery may be very cunning, but he does not have to be to scam these rubes.
But the mark is even higher up the food chain: Arpaio, the one with access to the county checkbook.
I’m puzzled over the fact that in his original Al Jazeera scam, as reported in that article, it was French Intelligence that wised up to Montgomery and alerted the US authorities.
How on Earth would someone like Montgomery would be noticed by a foreign intelligence agency, and why would they care anyway?
This is, to say the least, highly unusual.
It suggests that French Intelligence (DGSE, our CIA, or possibly DCRI, our FBI) already had a file on Montgomery — but why?????
There’s definitely more to this guy than meets the eyes, and I’m not surprised in retrospect that he could have easily cast his net over such country dunces as Vogt, Zullo and Arpaio.
@Lupin
As part of thge ongoing “War on Terror” a lot of information was/is shared between the various security agencies.
As such I feel confident that the Montgomery magic box data was proudly shared with, amongst others the DGSE etc.
SInce the French aren’t invested in the program of BS being vomitted out by Montgomery they would be far more likely to look on it with suspicion when it turned out to be GiGo.
The US and particularly the massive bloatocraciess that have paid for and swallow Montgomery’s pile of merde ARE invested, in some case possibly quite literally.
Admitting that they were all suckered in by a conman is the hardest part of breaking out of the con and hardest for institutions as there would have been too many people who pushed and advocated it to single out a scapegoat.
Easiest thing for organizations in that case is it to ignore the truth as long as possible
Here is the link to the entire 2010 PLAYBOY article exposing Montgomery:
http://www.stopdown.net/Dennis_Montgomery_Playboy.html
It’s definitely worth a read. The man’s reach expanded up to & including VP Cheney.
For my own interest the money quote is:
A branch of the French intelligence services helped convince the Americans that the bar codes were fake. The CIA and the French commissioned a technology company to locate or re-create codes in the Al Jazeera transmission. They found definitively that what Montgomery claimed was there was not. Quietly, as far as the CIA was concerned, the case was closed. The agency turned the matter over to the counterintelligence side to see where it had gone wrong.
This completely agrees with Bovril’s guess above.
Arpaio and Zullo are chimps compared to Montgomery.
I agree. I can even add to that, maybe. I’ve spent many hours (more than I should have) listening to Vogt on the radio. He thinks he’s a Renaissance man, a guy with great expertise in many disciplines. He honestly thinks he’s smarter than all the other birthers put together.
He has this really annoying chuckle that he brings out when he’s belittling people who aren’t nearly as smart as the great Douglas Vogt, and he used that stupid chuckle a LOT while smirking at the idiocy of “the forgers,” the employees of the Hawaii DOH, and the President himself. He’s a true believer in his own superiority and in his own analysis of the birth certificate. He’s not a scammer himself. He honestly believes his “20 points of forgery” and everything that’s in his two affidavits. He’s an EXPERT, in his own mind. So he’d be naturally attracted to a guy like Montgomery, and he’d be more than eager to impress him, if they met somehow (like maybe Montgomery bought a scanner).
Montgomery is apparently very successful at presenting himself as a great computer expert who has done investigative work for the U.S. government and for a Nevada governor before his election. He’s obviously got some money. He’d be exactly the type of person who really, seriously would impress Vogt, unlike the pathetic morons in the birther movement like Volin, Booth, Taitz, and even Zullo. This is the kind of guy who would really make Doug Vogt want to deepen the acquaintance. So naturally, he’d try to impress Montgomery with his own exploits and expertise.
And what, pray tell, would impress Montgomery the most? Why, his association with the Commander of the Cold Case Posse and his assistant, Brian Reilly, who were willing to drive more than a thousand miles just to meet with Doug.and obtain the fruits of his vast expertise as a document analyst. This was an “official law enforcement investigation” that was one of the most important investigations in American history — the investigation that might bring down a presidency.
Put my off-the-cuff but informed speculations together with DSM’s, and I think we’re really getting close to the scenario that brought Zullo and Montgomery into contact.
Many cranks do, in my experience especially those with a background in engineering (who think their degree allows them to understand the law better than judges and lawyers). This belief then again reinforces their attitude (“because judges disagree with me who understood it all, it must mean they are part of a conspiracy because they can’t all be stupid”).
This bigoted birther moron is closer to polyester than polymath.
While I appreciate your methodological approach, there is a fatal flaw in your reasoning: the vast majority of Birfers on Doc’s list are inactive; only a dozen or so are involved in the PDF investimigation. This drastically alters the odds.
I find it amusing, for lack of a better word, that Vogt the all knowing copier expert, who doesn’t know how copiers work, would find and recommend a “computer expert” to the Klown Posse. I personally doubt that Vogt can even more than manage to turn his own computer on, assuming he has one, and I will be willing to bet it is loaded with malware and assorted viral infections, so him vouching for the aforesaid expert is just more unintended comedy. Said expert being a con man himself, it would seem, has sold it seems Shurf Joe, and it seems the Klown Posse as well a true bill of goods, all of it dross. I wonder if this will permanently derail the Shurf’s great investigation? I guess time will tell.
If Arpaio’s investigations of birther nonsense, Eric Holder, and Judge Snow are really relying on Montgomery, I think this revelation will kill these investigations. I can understand how Montgomery, whose status as a successful con man is well documented, could still reel in some suckers who are conspiracy theorists out to confirm what they think they already know (which obviously defines birthers) and obsessed with destroying political enemies (which define birthers but also I think is what drives Arpaio to make a lot of bad decisions). But the general public isn’t going to fall for Montgomery’s swill any more. I don’t think even most birthers will.
Let’s be fair. If I were in a room with lots of people, and I needed a copy made, Doug Vogt would be the first person I’d ask.
Actually it is not. The question here is not whether any two birthers live within 6.5 miles of each other, but whether any birther tied to Joe Arpaio lives within 6.5 miles of Dennis Montgomery. Dennis Montgomery was the subject of current discussion.
Comrade Fogovich
Agreed! This was the perfect storm of circumstances that in the end, only because it was exposed by the New Phoenix Times, will show that the Great Zullo and the even Greater Arpaio have been apparently conned. Now, let’s see if they stop the con or become active participants in the alleged con. Decisions, decisions, decisions!
It will be interesting to watch and see if a moment of rationality will overtake Arpaio and Zullo but even if that happens Arpaio still has some serious questions to answer about the misuse of public funds before the light goes on…..assuming it does.
I don’t know about you but personally I’d love to see ArPAio & Zullo getting FURTHER AND FURTHER involved with that ticking bomb that is Montgomery.
Do we hide our ignorance and continue, or do we put an end to our charade? My guess is they’ll try to salvage this and continue. It’s too expensive to stop.
They’ve really stuck their feet into a bee’s nest on this one. The magnitude of the gullibility and incompetence is shocking!
Reality is a brick wall that they will collide into at some point. But the longer they go, the faster the speed and the more damaging the ultimate collision. I think.
One might even say…..universe shattering!
It’s going to be ugly, you’re right. The real question is how much collateral damage there will be. As Arpaio’s past escapades have demonstrated that could be considerable.
But even more expensive to keep going. But they will anyway. People do it everyday. It’s a classical risk fallacy. Rather than bite the bullet and accept known consequences, keep plowing on and digging in deeper. Avoid the known pain in favor of the unknown. The first lesson in business, knowing when to cut losses, requires objectivity.
The closing:
😉
Few people understand the engineering economy concept of sunk cost.
Birfers consider themselves heroes and patriots and geniuses, despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary; objectivity is in scarce supply, in Birferstan.
Captain Tuttle’s take on this latest debable:
Bye Bye Birthers
We’re gonna miss you so;
Bye Bye Birthers,
Why’d ya do it Joe?
So much bullshit,
Is what you had to say;
We’ll cry Birthers,
Since you’ll go away.
We’ll miss the way you lie,
As if we might believe;
And each and ev’ry night,
We’ll curse you faithfully!
Bye Bye Birthers,
It’s awful hard to care;
Bye Bye Birthers
The parallels between the Posse investigation and the debacle of Jim Garrison’s failed prosecution of Clay Shaw are instructive and uncanny. I expect further leaks by Maricopa insiders in the same manner that employees of the New Orleans’ DA’s office began to communicate with major media.
Garrison relied on drug addicts, jailhouse informants and produced in court as his chief witness a guy who was clinically insane. But even though it took less than an hour to acquit Shaw Garrison remained a popular, If controversial, figure in New Orleans. He was even elected to a judgeship after beating corruption charges.
I think the same factors are at play in Arizona. If Montgomery comes out of hiding, and I fully expect that this will eventually occur, Birthers and Obama haters will never ever be convinced that his documentation is bogus. The national media will hit Arpaio hard and supporters of the President will rally; his approval numbers will jump and Montgomery will be definitively exposed as a conman. But the Sheriff will remain an object of local veneration.
I see a different fate for Zullow. He might well become the focus of intense birther frustration. He was the pointman, the guy who made extravagant promises and failed to come through. All hat and no cattle. He doesn’t have the stature or supposed accomplishments of an Arpaio. I think the situation will demand a scapegoat and Zullow is well positioned.
The fascinating question is what will Montgomery come up with. Intercepted emails or text messages between Snow and Holder; purported audio of improper ex parte contacts; purloined computer files and fabricated phone records; bank recepts or other evidence of clandestine payments. When the record custodians come forward to deny such materials ever existed it will only be additional evidence of the Government’s manifest power to intimidate, corrupt, or vanish enemies of the State.
Such speculation might well be fanciful and excessive. But Montgomery’s modus operandi clearly establishes that his genius is very much associated with the talent to fabricate hard evidence. That’s what distinguishes him from the psychos and knuckledraggers that Jim Garrison was forced to rely on.
Wow! Hadn’t thought about Garrison for a very long time but you are absolutely right. Scary.
Hardcore birthers will never see the light. Maricopa County voters may be opening their eyes. I posted it elsewhere but Arpaio’s share of the vote for sheriff has dropped from nearly 66% in 2000 to barely over 50% in 2012. You have to suspect that trend will continue in 2016….if Arpaio does run.
And yes…..Zullo will be the scapegoat when one is needed.
It strikes me….in line with our previous conversation…..that part of Montgomery’s genius is when challenged to say “okay” show me how you figured out my stuff is false. Show me how you did that. And, oh yeah, let’s do it in an open court.
It puts the government in the position of having to demure with a plea that to prove Montgomery wrong and a crook they have to reveal secret means and methods. It apparently worked with the military.
Now, if the speculation here is close, he may be talking about fairly routine communications involving a judge and the Attorney General. First question is…..how the hell did he get that stuff and proving its false shouldn’t be nearly as complicated for the government.
Without breaking any rules, I can say with confidence that Douglas Vogt lives 8.7 miles from Dennis Montgomery. Vogt’s actual residence is in Bellevue. While the proximity does not prove that Vogt is directly involved in this, it certainly raises legitimate suspicions. It is possible that Vogt knew about Montgomery and contacted him, but it also is possible that Montgomery learned about Vogt and contacted him.
It should be noted that we have no idea if Montgomery is a birther. What we know is that he is scammer, one who probably will do anything for big bucks, regardless of the politics involved. There is no evidence, for now, that ideology has anything to do with his involvement with Arpaio.
I pictured (a young) Ann-Margret singing the whole thing. 10/10, would fake-listen again.
I guess I took that “hmm” the wrong way. Yes, this fact does present a plausible mechanism to bring together Arpaio and Montgomery.
Vogt’s front yard is rather hideous looking. Why can’t he get grass to grow in the mild, damp climate of Washington state? And that ridiculous sign above the front door probably violates the HOA covenants.
Even on the Internet, one cannot escape from the lawn nazis.
That’s pretty good.
Note: Using the actual addresses of Vogt and Montgomery, the distance is 8.6 miles by car.