I think we’re seeing the inevitable sorting out of the birther movement, with the politically motivated dropping away and the denialists staying the course. That’s natural, of course, for someone who has been 4 years in denial to remain in denial.
Some believed that Obama’s election in 2008 resulted from voters not knowing who they were electing. They denied that the electorate made an informed choice. This time around, Americans knew exactly what kind of job Barack Obama had done as President. In order to maintain the fiction that “the people really don’t want Obama” it is necessary now to deny the election itself, and that’s what we see today over at the Obama Ballot Challenge web site in an article, “Can You Help Us Prove Obama Stole the Election?” Anything to deny the legitimacy of Barack Obama as President of the United States.
OBC is not yet alleging election tampering, but they are starting a research project, and do you notice how they start with the conclusion and then do the research? Perhaps some of the volunteer self-proclaimed forensic document experts can discover that they are also statistical experts. Rather than anomalies in pixels, they can look for anomalies in precinct totals. Who knows?
My career in and around vital records data systems served me in good stead to deal with some of the birther nonsense about birth certificates. Perhaps my degree in math will come in handy if there is a new round of conspiracy theories looking for patterns in the noise of polling data. I’ve opened up a new high-level category: Election Conspiracies.
Wait until they discover that ballots are generated from PDF files 😉
Well it looks like Orly won’t be among them.
It seems that she is throwing in the towel. http://www.orlytaitzesq.com/?p=362203
Judges follow the same marching orders: the rule of law….
Orly wrote:
For some reason she didn’t mention Taitz v. Sebelius in Texas. I mean handling 4 lawsuits, one with 30-something defendants, is a crazy workload for one person anyway. Given 4 active ones, why WOULD anybody expect her to file another lawsuit, unless she’s going for a vexatious litigant of the year award or something.
They are going to have to do their research pretty quickly. All controversies in a state have to be resolved by December 11, 2012 so the electors can vote on December 17, 2012.
And the votes get counted on January 6, 2013.
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/key-dates.html
I don’t think a bunch of anecdotal stories about possible irregularities in voting precincts is going to convince a judge to halt the voting.
Latino voter lobbying groups are up in arms in Arizona because there are over 600,000 ‘provisional’ votes that haven’t been counted yet. They are claiming that those votes are being ‘purged’ because the race winners have already been declared and the election is over. They are calling on candidates to withdraw their concession speeches because they think that stops the vote count or something.
Well the election is not over until all the legitimate votes have been counted, and they have until November 16 to do that and the certification conference is on December 3.
I find it disturbing, not particularly surprising, but disturbing none-the-less, that this misinformation is being promoted in order to ‘maintain the rage’ on the left side of the aisle. This is the tactic
There is no telling how many voters were actually discouraged from voting by the wrong date or the seemingly random change of polling place. But we do know that those 600,000 votes WILL be counted, and they WILL affect many races. Arpaio can still lose. Barber can still win. Obama can still carry Arizona.
Straight forward report: More that 600,000 ballots in Ariz. still uncounted
Report including propaganda beatup: Arizona election results: 600,000 early, provisional ballots still to be counted
but they are starting a
research projectpredictable smearApparently, she now has less than that.
CA – Judd v Obama – Dismissed Sua Sponte
When I was in sixth grade, we had a mock election for various offices, including the President. However, unlike the elections of the time, we cast our votes on a computer in the library, a Commodore PET computer. I suppose the mock election ended up being tampered with, though I do not remember who won (the mock election, that is).
> Perhaps some of the volunteer self-proclaimed forensic document experts can discover that they are also statistical experts. Rather than anomalies in pixels, they can look for anomalies in precinct totals.
Totally. I’ve already seen the meme “demographic groups 1, …., 10 all show higher percentages of votes for Romney than for McCain, so how could he have lost?” pop up on several (not just birther) sites.
(One of my favourites was the claim that because McCain was -8% overall in 2008 but Romney was +9% over McCain (!) in the Jewish vote (!), Romney actually must’ve won because 9 > 8…)
And many of those who substituted hard statistics with their gut feelings (“I saw no Obama signs in my home town… and everyone I talked to was going to vote Romney… no way Obama could win / have won with that many people voting for Romney”) before the elections will continue to do so.
Doc,
I really hope you’re right and we start seeing birther “statistical experts”—that would be fun 😉
I love that the conclusion they draw is not that voter fraud stories don’t exist, but rather that they DO exist, but are hidden.
Can you say FRAUD?
That is actually true, even in very blue New York. Romney signs outnumbered Obama signs 4 or 5 to 1 in my town yet the Ds won every single office from Town Council to President by large margins.
Here’s why: 1. The Obama campaign decided not to pass out signs this time. You had to physcally go down to HQ and get one.
2. Many Obama voters live in apartments so they don’t put signs out on lawns.
If you only talk to Romney voters that is true.
People in Australia just cannot understand the American voting process (that’s OK, I defy Americans to understand the Australian preferential voting system).
I heard one of the Government ministers (I forget which one) comment that Obama’s ‘narrow victory’ is probably a good thing for Australia.
I’m sorry but I don’t see 303 to 206 as close. Florida may still change and make it a bit closer, or Arizona may still change and make it wider. It is never-the-less, a comfortable win.
The popular vote is close, sure, but not as close as some previous elections, and Obama maintained a strong advantage in virtually every demographic other than older white males.
This election was not close.
Here is someone who makes Donald Trump and Orly Taitz almost look sane
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/11/eric-dondero-boycott-democrat-libertarian.html
Yes, but:
“Unlike in Alice in Wonderland, simply saying something is so does not make it so.”
— Federal Judge Clay D. Land
— Rhodes v. MacDonald
The Magic M: I saw no Obama signs in my home town
perhaps you should read this about obama’s amazing campaign “machine” – everything was micro-targeted – they probably even knew what you ate for breakfast
http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/07/tech/web/obama-campaign-tech-team/index.html
oh and from republican strategist hogan, romney’s “machine” was just catching up to where obama’s was 4 years ago – that’s whatcha get with regressives
Don’t forget Lord Monckton.
http://www.obamaconspiracy.org/2012/09/miscalculating-the-odds/
OK, FRAUD!!
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/republicans_voter_fraud_tests.php?ref=fpb
Republicans ‘Test’ For Voting Fraud, Wind Up In Custody
Ryan J. Reilly- November 9, 2012, 6:00 AM 19668
Two Republicans in separate states were taken into police custody during the past week for allegedly attempting to test how easy it would be to commit voter fraud.
In Nevada, 56-year-old Roxanne Rubin, a Republican, was arrested on Nov. 2 for allegedly trying to vote twice, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported. The newspaper quoted a report by an investigator with the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office that said Rubin “was unhappy with the process; specifically in that her identification was not checked.”
Rubin allegedly voted at one polling location in Henderson, Nev. on Oct. 29 and then went to another voting location in Las Vegas to try to vote again. Poll workers told her records indicated she had already voted, but Rubin allegedly told them she hadn’t. A poll worker reportedly overheard Rubin tell another man that she had “signed my name differently, and they did not ask for ID.” She was arrested at the Riviera Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas and charged with a category “D” felony.
On Tuesday in New Mexico, a Republican poll watcher was taken into police custody after also apparently trying to test the system. According to the Las Cruces Sun-News, the man voted, then obtained a second provisional ballot and announced he was simply “testing the system to see if people could get away with voting twice.”
Santa Clara, N.M. Police Chief Lonnie Sandoval told TPM the suspect’s name would not be released because the investigation was ongoing. He expected to complete the investigation by today and send the report to the district attorney, who would ultimately decide whether to bring charges.
“From what we understand, he was trained by the Republican Party,” Sandoval told TPM. The Grant County Republican Party did not respond to a request for comment.
County Clerk Robert Zamarripa told TPM he and his employees had never seen such an incident before but said it wouldn’t sour his office’s relationship with poll watchers.
“The Republican Party chairwoman from this county handled it accordingly,” Zamarripa said. “We’ve always worked well together, so I don’t think it would cause any problems whatsoever.” Zamarripa said he was told the individual only recently began attending the Republican Party’s meetings and wasn’t well known by the organization’s leaders.
Sure, we can say it….but the real question is do you even know what the word means?
I wonder if has dawned on these sawdust for brains thinkers who are making the now proven to be false claim that President Obama didn’t win in any states that require a photo ID that most of the states who passed the voter suppression photo ID laws just happen to be red states? Probably not.
Hey, lookit, the birther can spell one syllable words!
Lets give him a hand, but clap slowly, HE’S A SQUIRREL!
Yes, I stole the punch-line from Spongebob Squarepants. Yes it is a stupid cartoon. That said, it is way more intellectually stimulating that anything a birther has posted to the internet.
It must have escaped your notice: the whole country (nearly) is now immune to baseless conjectures and evidence-free accusations. You got proof? Bring it.
Now go have your twenty-third double bourbon for the day and cry into your bowl of sour grapes.
There are only four states that require a photo ID in order to vote: Kansas, Tennessee, Georgia and Indiana. So to say that Obama lost in every state that has photo voter ID is deceptive since there are 46 states plus the District of Columbia without a strict Voter ID law.
All Republican Voter Suppression efforts appear to have motivated an unenthusiastic minority group voting bloc to stand in line for hours to vote for Obama. The Democrats exploited the Republican effort and used it to their advantage.
That reads like a confession. Where did all of the birther con artists go?
Aww poor baby, there there.
I drove through central Connecticut several weeks and I saw hundreds and hundreds of Linda McMahon lawn signs and I saw no Chris Murphy signs, yet Murphy won easily.
Lawn signs are a quaint remnant from the past, but they are about as effective as lapel pins. One campaign worker knocking on doors and making phone calls is worth a thousand lawn signs.
What you were looking at was PAC cash poorly spent LOL
Crazy is a great motivator, but only only in a fire-ready-aim kinda way.
Rickey:
same here – hundreds of signs for my tea party rep nan hayworth – i counted SIX at one intersection and none for maloney – i wanted to vomit (and come out in the middle of the night to tea them down)
AND THEN
Updated November 7, 2012, 1:02 a.m. ET
Hayworth loses seat in NY’s Hudson Valley – WSJ.com
President Bill Clinton’s former aide Sean Patrick Maloney has won the congressional seat in New York’s 18th District.
The Democrat ousted freshman Republican Nan Hayworth, who he said was too conservative for the Hudson Valley district. He had cited her tea party support and her embrace of vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan’s Medicare plan.
Maloney becomes New York’s first openly gay member of Congress.
Hayworth had called him a carpetbagger, claiming he lived in Manhattan.
The redrawn district in the generally moderate region had been considered an opportunity for Democrats, but a September poll showed Hayworth with a big lead.
Since then, Maloney won the Working Families Party line on the ballot. He also had Clinton’s endorsement and big labor backing.
someone forgot to gloat:
WHOMP!!!
WHOMP!!!
WHOMP!!!
Is it just me (I admit I haven’t been around here much lately) or are the birthers just phoning it in?
“Call me a taxi.”
“OK, you’re a taxi.”
Is that French for “schadenfreude?”
It’s kind of touching, the trembling lip, the faint tear tracks on the cheek. Poor babies.
Thanks doc,
The short version of the strategy investigates Allan west,s loss as the micro version for Romney receiving 3m less that mccain 2008 effort. That and soros owning the scytl that counts the votes.
Glad that you are staying on and ahead of the curve.
As for the name might I suggest those investigating this kind of vote fraud be referred to as “flippers”–it,s kind of sexy!
Nothing surprising in that. I disagree with McCain on most issues, but he is an honorable man who has served his country. Rmoney is a putz with offshore accounts who has never served anyone but himself. While McCain was in the Hanoi Hilton, Rmoney was in the Paris Hilton.
Cross-referfencing the National Conference of State Legislatures round up of state voter ID requirements (http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/voter-id.aspx) with the election results, Obama won:
4 states that require photo ID: Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire and Hawaii.
6 states that require ID but allow exceptions (voting on an affidavit, etc.): Colorado, Washington, Ohio, Virginia, Connecticut, Rhode Island
Pleasantly surprised to see Doc’s comment passed moderation at Obama Ballot Challenge. I just pitched in with:
I’ve been watching elections for decades. In the most recent decade, every time a party loses massively on a naitonwide scale, the base of that party screams fraud.
Dems did it in 2002 and 2004.
GOPs did it in 2006 and 2008
Dems did it in 2010
Now GOPs are doing it again in 2012.
All the while, there is no fraud on any sort of scale that could affect the election nationally but a couple of instances of Republican voters in 2012 “testing the system” are the only reported instances of actual fraud.
Like the Republican in NM, who registered his dog. On second thought, Angel is smarter than any teabagger.
My mistake. I estimated the probability that Mr. Monckton is complete knee-biter at one minus epsilon, where epsilon is arbitrarily small. 😉
Obama can still carry Arizona? And they waited five days to count 250,000 ballots in Florida, before declating Obama the winner?
Personally, I am very doubtful that these 600,000 ballots will be counted legally, without any fraud. Most seem to be from Hispanics who did not receive their early ballots in the post, and then had to vote conditionally. I bet many early ballots will re-appear mysteriously. It has happened before, and fairly recently, ballots appearing out of nowhere to settle a vote in Arizona. Checking other news websites, the only candidate who has renounced his concession hitherto is actually a Republican.
Orly should get involved, Threaten to sue Arpaio for election fraud if he does not present himself in Mississippi. For once, she might be on the good and even the winning side. (Of course, she would have to find a plaintiff with standing first, and we know that will be very hard for her to do)
At the time I wrote that, yes. Romney was ahead by less than 200K on election night. So Obama ‘only’ needed about 400K of those 600K votes to win.
I don’t know the current situation in the Presidential count, but Barber (Gabrielle Giffords old seat) has pulled ahead of McSally,
I don’t believe that the Maricopa County vote count is compromised. I do believe that there was a rather disorganized voter suppression campaign and several mistakes that could be ‘purposeful accidents’, but I don’t believe the counters are going to ‘do the wrong thing’, especially in the Presidential race. There is simply no advantage to anybody for that. Arizona’s 11 EC votes aren’t going to change the overall result.
On the other hand, I haven’t heard how close Arpaio is either.
Less than 200,000 votes on the presidential race? But there are no Cubans in Arizona … Judging by the comments,a majority of those uncounted were Latinos and 300,000 of theiir ballots would be enough to offset Romney’s leading. So, why did the networks even think of declaring this?
Because they know these votes will not be counted? Because they know there aren’t really 600,000 votes to count still? Meaning Arizona screwed up, or more sinisterly, these ballots are hidden somewhere to re-appear suddenly to help someone’s ellection or the passing of some proposition.
Judging from the brilliant detective work of the CCCR,it is probably a big screw-up. Like counting blank early ballots and their corresponding early votes twice. Would explain a lot already.
Nate Silver has just posted on the turnout for 2012. He points out that there are still many ballots outstanding, especially in California and Arizona, as well as Washington and Oregon, and Obama’s popular vote lead may well grow to 3%. When all is said and done, it appears turnout will be similar to what it was in 2008, other than in New Jersey and New York where it likely was depressed by dislocations due to Sandy. Romney’s vote total will end up close to McCain’s (sorry to those who are yelling fraud).
Nate points out that there is a significant bifurcation between swing states, which saw increased turnout, and non-competitive states, where it was off. This is likely due to he fact that the campaigns concentrated their efforts on those states and made little or no effort to get people out in the rest.
Hi scientist,
I like your rmoney turn of name. Icon,t know if anyone,s still on this thread, but late Monday it looks as if west will prompt an auto recount. I’ll trust doc to bring the conversation forward.
I’m still pushing for flippers.
If you are referring to Allen West, the margin is outside of that auto recount. He lost, although he still refuses to concede…
NBC had some good articles on the data updates in that area:
http://nativeborncitizen.wordpress.com/2012/11/13/educating-the-confused-voter-fraud-fl-st-lucie-2/
http://nativeborncitizen.wordpress.com/2012/11/13/educating-the-confused-voter-fraud-fl-broward/
http://nativeborncitizen.wordpress.com/2012/11/11/fl-st-lucie-recount/
Hopefully West will have to pay and pay dearly of his own funds if attempts to force a recount in the courts.
It sounds like we are practically neighbors. There is a stretch of Main Street in Fishkill where there were dozens of Hayworth lawn signs lined up in a row. On the other hand, I received many phone calls from real people working for the Maloney campaign and one robo call from the Hayworth campaign.
Well, what else does he have to do? Always glad to see a populace recognize an embarrassment when they see one!
Reminds me of the latest BS from Cody Robert Judy.
He claims that since Romney conceded the race, he (Romney) can no longer become President even if Obama was found to be ineligible.
(Of course the motivation is clear: Judy ran as a democrat, so a part of him thinks that if this OMG moment ever came, he would become President as the “next in line”.)
I’m always sending Judy messages along the lines of “We’re just not that into you!”